So I am looking at a new game I started yesterday and some interesting data/statistics.
This is for New York City. I have been building and selling a rather successful pickup truck at $1800 (rating of 19). I sold 164 units last month. Not too bad. Initially I had priced it around $3800 and had to keep dropping the price and increasing marketing until I found a balance. I am probably going to increase the price though.
Demand was high but now it is only average. There is only one other car maker selling a pickup in the city which is only rated 11, and sells for a whopping $13,225 !!!! They only sold 4 last month.
There are about 8 companies now in New York. I am thinking of building a Touring car, but 6 companies already build them. Here's their stats:
Company 1 - $11,013, sold 4, rating 22
Company 2 - $ 4,889, sold 12, rating 18
Company 3 - $ 4,187, sold 0, rating 9
Company 4 - $ 3,555, sold 10, rating 10
Company 5 - $ 4,917, sold 10, rating 9
Company 6 - $ 1,865, sold 0, rating 12
I'm trying to figure out a strategy based on these figures.
The average price of Touring car is $5,071
The average number sold is merely 6
The average rating is 13.33
I can see that the higher rating would be higher priced and selling less, however the price of Co. #1 is double the average. Company 2 and 5 generated greater revenues, however, they built more cars and likely had higher costs. That data I could not find.
Company #4 made less revenue yet sold the same number of cars as Company #5 with about 28% less revenue. Therefore of #4 and #5 it is likely that #4 had a greater profit margin for same number of sales.
Back to the question: what strategy to use?
It almost seems to me that the AI is rewarding Company #1 with the greatest profit margin with the lease number of cars sold (of the companies that actually sold cars) by simply cranking up the price. That does not seem right.
My crappy pickup truck has a rating of 19 which is not far off in rating... I am sure that I could build a Touring car with a 22 rating or better. But COULD I really sell it for $11k ????
My question is why would the AI build such an expensive car that is significantly higher priced?
On another note... there are only 2 car companies in New York selling Pickup trucks. Mine and one other company. Here are THOSE stats:
MINE - $1,800, sold 164 units, 19 rating
Other Co. - $13,225, sold 4, rating 11
Of course they sold less with THAT price. I wonder what THEIR cost would be and profit margin. I have to sell more than 7x at my price to make up for every car they sell... that takes manpower and other costs. I am not sure which company is more profitable. I am making about $150k or more a month, but it comes at a cost of course. They are merely selling 4 cars but the margin is likely 100x what mine is.
(01-13-2014, 10:45 PM)geozero Wrote: [ -> ]There is only one other car maker selling a pickup in the city which is only rated 11, and sells for a whopping $13,225 !!!! They only sold 4 last month.
Company 1 - $11,013, sold 4, rating 22
Company 2 - $ 4,889, sold 12, rating 18
Company 3 - $ 4,187, sold 0, rating 9
Company 4 - $ 3,555, sold 10, rating 10
Company 5 - $ 4,917, sold 10, rating 9
Company 6 - $ 1,865, sold 0, rating 12
I'm trying to figure out a strategy based on these figures.
The average price of Touring car is $5,071
The average number sold is merely 6
One problem i noticed immediately, the vehicle price of 10k sounds like a bug (though it may just be a super rich people truck.
Either way, it is clearly moving your average higher.
A much fairer average price for the vehicles you listed would probably exclude that one, and be something like 4k.
(01-13-2014, 10:45 PM)geozero Wrote: [ -> ]Back to the question: what strategy to use?
It almost seems to me that the AI is rewarding Company #1 with the greatest profit margin with the lease number of cars sold (of the companies that actually sold cars) by simply cranking up the price. That does not seem right.
My crappy pickup truck has a rating of 19 which is not far off in rating... I am sure that I could build a Touring car with a 22 rating or better. But COULD I really sell it for $11k ????
This is actually one of the things i like about the game. There is no clear answer to this kind of question.
Why?
Afaik, this is because the population is based on real income distribution, based on the per capita on the map.
To my understanding, a vehicle priced at 3k when the per capita is 500(6x per caita) is selling to a vastly different demographic than a vehicle selling at 10k when the per capita is 500 (20x per capita).
Obviously you can make a much higher margin, but there are FAR fewer people in the richer demographics.
Both are entirely valid strategies.
(01-13-2014, 10:45 PM)geozero Wrote: [ -> ]My question is why would the AI build such an expensive car that is significantly higher priced?
The answer to that may be extremely simple, i suspect it is either a bug, or a vehicle designed and priced for the super rich.
Another thing you have consider is supply. The AI will increase prices if it can not meet demand, eventually It'll find a balance with the number it's able to produce and the price.
The real question is, are any of these companies losing sales because they can not produce enough units?
A lot plays into valuation of a vehicle. It's a pretty complex formula, Overall rating and price is a factor, but there are MANY MANY more factors. That $11,000 vehicle is selling for a reason. And the $1600 isn't selling because most likely they can't make enough. (They'll raise the prices here soon, as well try to increase supply)
I did a quick search and a vehicle costing that much would be around $258,000 in today's money. That's one helluva car. I honestly do not see that happening until later due to the cars being so low priced, low income, etc.
It has to be a bug.
The amount/speed it's allowing it to grow is something I'll look into, yes.
(01-13-2014, 11:23 PM)geozero Wrote: [ -> ]I did a quick search and a vehicle costing that much would be around $258,000 in today's money. That's one helluva car. I honestly do not see that happening until later due to the cars being so low priced, low income, etc.
It has to be a bug.
The problem is, if your taking about a vehicle that only sells 4 per month, so 50 in a year, your including a whole bunch of very exclusive, limited run vehicles.
For example, if you want to include suv's there is one Land Rover range rover model of which only 500 are to be produced and it costs a nice 170,000.
Ill admit, i haven't been able to find a dedicated Pickup that costs more than 80,000 yet, though i imagine there might be some concept models that fit in the 50 per year margin.
I would say a steady pricing increase up to the Depression and then nothing really that expensive until after 1945.
I would also think that during war years there would be shortages in materials and manpower and production would have some ceiling limits even if you have 10 factories.
Some games like Hearts of Iron have a manpower availability statistic which prevents you to build huge armies. There should be something like that in the game to prevent someone from building 100's of cars when WW2 is going on (at least not for public, but if/when you introduce ability to sell to military then I could see larger numbers of pickup trucks and what not being made and sold).
(01-13-2014, 11:33 PM)Arakash Wrote: [ -> ] (01-13-2014, 11:23 PM)geozero Wrote: [ -> ]I did a quick search and a vehicle costing that much would be around $258,000 in today's money. That's one helluva car. I honestly do not see that happening until later due to the cars being so low priced, low income, etc.
It has to be a bug.
The problem is, if your taking about a vehicle that only sells 4 per month, so 50 in a year, your including a whole bunch of very exclusive, limited run vehicles.
For example, if you want to include suv's there is one Land Rover range rover model of which only 500 are to be produced and it costs a nice 170,000.
Ill admit, i haven't been able to find a dedicated Pickup that costs more than 80,000 yet, though i imagine there might be some concept models that fit in the 50 per year margin.
I would agree IF the rating was higher, but it was not. It was about the same rating as one of my vehicles. IF that car was a 90 rating and made of solid gold then I could see it selling that high.
In my game New York started with a HIGH demand for pickup trucks, and even when I was the ONLY company there or 2-3 companies, I had to lower my price from $3800 to $1800. So a city without any competition and high demand I should have got more money (supply/demand). That's why I don't understand a car selling for $11,000.
(01-13-2014, 11:36 PM)geozero Wrote: [ -> ]I would say a steady pricing increase up to the Depression and then nothing really that expensive until after 1945.
This is outside my knowledge, so i wont really comment on it.
(01-13-2014, 11:36 PM)geozero Wrote: [ -> ]I would agree IF the rating was higher, but it was not. It was about the same rating as one of my vehicles. IF that car was a 90 rating and made of solid gold then I could see it selling that high.
In my game New York started with a HIGH demand for pickup trucks, and even when I was the ONLY company there or 2-3 companies, I had to lower my price from $3800 to $1800. So a city without any competition and high demand I should have got more money (supply/demand). That's why I don't understand a car selling for $11,000.
Rather than the specific general rating, i am far more interested in its specific ratings that would make it attractive to the super rich demographic.
i.e. luxury comfort etc.
tbqh i barely pay attention to the general rating ingame, as i target my vehicles at specific demographics.
If these ratings are low and the vehicle is being sold at 10k then i agree with you that there is something wrong.
Vehicle pricing is odd, it's supposed to go up between 1900-1910, then steadily decrease until mid 1920s, after that it's flat until turmoil is over around 1945, where it then steadily rises.
I believe the issue with the pricing is based around the AI building too many branches too quickly. I've reduced this rate by 400% and so far the 1930 prices are a bit more reasonable.
(01-13-2014, 10:45 PM)geozero Wrote: [ -> ]So I am looking at a new game I started yesterday and some interesting data/statistics.
This is for New York City. I have been building and selling a rather successful pickup truck at $1800 (rating of 19). I sold 164 units last month. Not too bad. Initially I had priced it around $3800 and had to keep dropping the price and increasing marketing until I found a balance. I am probably going to increase the price though.
Demand was high but now it is only average. There is only one other car maker selling a pickup in the city which is only rated 11, and sells for a whopping $13,225 !!!! They only sold 4 last month.
There are about 8 companies now in New York. I am thinking of building a Touring car, but 6 companies already build them. Here's their stats:
Company 1 - $11,013, sold 4, rating 22
Company 2 - $ 4,889, sold 12, rating 18
Company 3 - $ 4,187, sold 0, rating 9
Company 4 - $ 3,555, sold 10, rating 10
Company 5 - $ 4,917, sold 10, rating 9
Company 6 - $ 1,865, sold 0, rating 12
Same here! In my new 1.11 game, prices are just crazy in 1906. Competitors sell their cars between $ 4000 and $ 10K...
As a matter of facts, the only price for old cars I know for sure (I have an original advert at home) is the Peugeot 202 produced between 1938 and 1949. Well, when Peugeot launched it in 1938, its price was 2200 francs. If I do the math right now it is something like $ 300...
Thus, as I've been working for the last year in a small french company (Actually, well, the very best BUGATTI specialist worldwide - I know how lucky I am ;-) ) I had the chance to look through BUGATTI original sales magazines. The Type 35 B was sold for about 2000 francs in the twenties! That is the price for a Peugeot 20 years later, but, well, it was THE GP car from in those days, winning everything and so on... Which should explain its price!
But still, there should be a problem or bug with this release as, in my game, everyone was selling cars between $ 600 - 1200, and then, a year later, for about 4-5 times this price.
I had to launch my new 1907 model for $ 3500 whereas in my previous game (based on easy mode and beta 1.10) I was still selling my 1905 car in the 1910s for $ 1500. Thus, I also discovered a high raise in costs (1901 car = from 600 to 350 in 1906; 1907 car started from $ 2200...)
FROM WIKI: The standard 4-seat open tourer of 1909 cost $850;[32] in 1913, the price dropped to $550 and $440 in 1915. Sales were 69,762 in 1911; 170,211 in 1912; 202,667 in 1913; 308,162 in 1914; and 501,462 in 1915.[27] In 1914, an assembly line worker could buy a Model T with four months' pay.[27]
By the 1920s, the price had fallen to $260[13] because of increasing efficiencies of assembly line technique and volume.
That means there was a 70% price drop just from efficiencies and overall volume and not economic reasons. By 1929-30 at the beginning of the Depression the price may have fluctuated further. I have read that the Ford Model A made in 1932 purchase price was about $490 yet cost nearly $750 to build. Ford lost $250 per car, production was delayed as the assembly lines were not geared to mass produce this model, and the car was notorious to break down.
I hope that somehow the effects of the depression, wars and other factors affect the playability. There may be times when you should not be able to just build thousands of cars and sell them all... the effects of supply/demand should affect play.
I have a pretty complete price and sales charts for various companies pre-WW2, the sales and unit cost follows the historical model, the problem is maintaining profitability, specially for the AI at these prices.
You'll notice that if you build a car in 1907, by 1924 it's much cheaper, same idea as with the Model T.
Prices also decrease based on how many units you build...
The main issue is the amount of units that can be built at a factory... I need to tweak the amounts produced so that it increases drastically between 1910-1930 and then taper off. As of now I believe it's a linear function.
Anyhoo as a player, you should be able to hit ford numbers easily. The main problem is getting the AI to do it without going bankrupt.
(01-14-2014, 02:39 PM)geozero Wrote: [ -> ]FROM WIKI: The standard 4-seat open tourer of 1909 cost $850;[32] in 1913, the price dropped to $550 and $440 in 1915. Sales were 69,762 in 1911; 170,211 in 1912; 202,667 in 1913; 308,162 in 1914; and 501,462 in 1915.[27] In 1914, an assembly line worker could buy a Model T with four months' pay.[27]
By the 1920s, the price had fallen to $260[13] because of increasing efficiencies of assembly line technique and volume.
That means there was a 70% price drop just from efficiencies and overall volume and not economic reasons. By 1929-30 at the beginning of the Depression the price may have fluctuated further. I have read that the Ford Model A made in 1932 purchase price was about $490 yet cost nearly $750 to build. Ford lost $250 per car, production was delayed as the assembly lines were not geared to mass produce this model, and the car was notorious to break down.
I hope that somehow the effects of the depression, wars and other factors affect the playability. There may be times when you should not be able to just build thousands of cars and sell them all... the effects of supply/demand should affect play.
I agree with you on the demand, but I think it is already managed in the game, but mainly randomly, in my mind.
That is, even if you're right about Ford, it has not been the same for other competitors, back in time. As a matter of facts, it also depended mainly on the strategy that any company adopted. For example, and as I said in a previous post, BUGATTI strategy was pretty different, selling "Exceptional and Sport" cars, but at a much higher price (About 2K francs per car in the 20s which should be worth $ 2000 approximatively in the US).
But I assume Peugeot's one was mostly Ford-like, even if, well, it sold in France, which is clearly NOT the US market, even in those days (France was some kind of a pioneer market for cars and automotive)
For example, also, Henry Ford always said, you can buy the Ford T model any color you want! But it needs to be black! (Not sure about translation, you guys should know better than I do about US car history)
My point here is, it should be nearly impossible for Eric to develop dedicated and precise strategy for all the brands that appear in the game, and thus, there should be so many differences between two players/strategies...
I suffered this sales drop also in my new game, but I assume it is more related to my first model becoming outdated... (That is, 5 years of selling, especially in those days, should NOT be that significative)
But as I said in other post, I think there should be a small bug about that as my first car cost me about 600 to produce at first, and I sold it from 1000 to 800 (at the end of 1905). Then, in 1906, when I launched my new model, I used the same slider "strategy" mostly, but costs increased to high level values that were irrelevant... When I tried to launched it, it cost me about $ 2200, which is really weird, again, assuming the increasing assembly techniques and etc... Thus, and obviously, selling my car that high (3000-3500) caused a big drop in sales...
I really hope the new release will be able to settle all of this, as it is hard to play, or at least, to understand how to perform...
I agree that there is likely a bug somewhere and that it makes it difficult to play with any sort of business strategy.
Again, I have no issues with a car costing more to build and selling at higher prices IF the quality rating is extremely higher which would follow along Bugatti's line, and later high end cars.
For the assembly line cars for mass production though there needs to be more closely related pricing to quality rating ratios.
(01-14-2014, 02:39 PM)geozero Wrote: [ -> ]FROM WIKI: The standard 4-seat open tourer of 1909 cost $850;[32] in 1913, the price dropped to $550 and $440 in 1915. Sales were 69,762 in 1911; 170,211 in 1912; 202,667 in 1913; 308,162 in 1914; and 501,462 in 1915.[27] In 1914, an assembly line worker could buy a Model T with four months' pay.[27]
By the 1920s, the price had fallen to $260[13] because of increasing efficiencies of assembly line technique and volume.
That means there was a 70% price drop just from efficiencies and overall volume and not economic reasons. By 1929-30 at the beginning of the Depression the price may have fluctuated further. I have read that the Ford Model A made in 1932 purchase price was about $490 yet cost nearly $750 to build. Ford lost $250 per car, production was delayed as the assembly lines were not geared to mass produce this model, and the car was notorious to break down.
I hope that somehow the effects of the depression, wars and other factors affect the playability. There may be times when you should not be able to just build thousands of cars and sell them all... the effects of supply/demand should affect play.
Ive seen that kind of drop in production cost before, but only by producing an existing model for an extended amount of time.
This is because the game reduces the production cost of vehicles depending on how many are produced.
For example, a vehicle ive posted about in the highest sales thread, a compact car, cost about ~100 to produce by 1910. That was after 500-600k units were produced.
So i don't expect vehicles designed in 1912 to be immediately as cheap to produce as the model T.
That said, ive also noticed that designing vehicles right at the start of the game results in cheaper vehicles than at any other time in that decade (1900's)
I also agree with Eric that you could hit Model T numbers as a player at the moment.